Tough Times!

December 30, 2025 2 Comments

So long (and good riddance) to 2025. I've had 50yrs in this industry and can't remember such pitiful conditions. Looking forward, let's touch a few topics.

Why are we still so fond of bicycle wheels?
What's next?
Progress or fads?
The job market.
Lean into the resilience of cycling.
Goals for 2026

Why are we still so fond of bicycle wheels?
Builders differ and so of course do our reasons for wheel fanaticism. 

• Sparkly beauty—amazing symmetry, motion, and visual delight—mesmerizing like a flickering flame or burbling stream. Have you been momentarily hypnotized by a spinning wheel?
• Magic—wheels have superpowers that make the miracle of cycling possible. Even at rest, they positively vibrate with potential! Isn't their performance more amazing the more you learn about them?
• Puzzle—they're visually simple but with complex behavior so that working on one can feel like interaction with a living organism. Have you worked on wheels that made you wonder who's in charge?
  
• Novelty—most people entirely ignore them. Plenty of mechanics avoid them. Do wheels select their admirers carefully? How did you get picked?

What's next?
Anyone in the bike industry in 2025 who wants to forget the year can be forgiven. Still, it's worth noticing the bright spots and the wheel category has many.

• A number of domestic wheel makers are succeeding in spite of market forces. Boyd, I-9, Astral, Enve, and Berd among them. Their success is in spite of tariffs which harm their customers more than help them against competitors. 
• I'll remember 2025 as a year of clever hubs—many with impressive tech, high finish, and extra attention to their categories. Seems every time I look around, another ambitious hub appears. This Winter I'm in Barcelona and Davide Frassine showed me hubs from Lavelle, made in Northern Spain. A great time to be building wheels!

• Let's not forget the many motor, generator, and transmission hubs that add such dimension to wheel design.
• Sorry that Islandix shut down. This was an affordable, digital wheel trueness and tension tracking system that enables hundreds of builders worldwide to see their wheels like only big companies could previously afford. Unfortunately, tariffs isolated Ryan from his major US market .
• Trudi! Offering similar digital insight is Berd's awesome Trudi building system—the product of years of work from a tight-knit team of passionate engineers. Here is a concept that's always been a fantasy for builders like me. More than 100 Trudi's have been sold at upwards of USD$7k each. Don't dismiss it because of cost. Listen to HED's Andy Tetmeyer for an inside glimpse.
  
• Spoke availability is changing. As Sapim and DT move in the OE direction, Pillar and Alpina are increasing their presence. Spokes are seriously harmed by steel tariffs, so we can only hope that they remain available in the US.
• Carbon spokes are on so many wheels at the high end lately—unidirectional carbon blades in straight pull designs. Some serious work has been done bonding carbon to aluminum end pieces and persuading us that $10/spoke is not too much.
• We've just upgraded the Tension Radar utility. This free tension visualizer now includes all 18 spoke types, more detailed instructions, and streamlined chart downloads and printing.

Progress or fads?
Rapid change makes it more difficult to judge new product. It's a good time to remain curious and open-minded.

• Why does so much new product occur at the highest price points? With the Pro Tour increasingly resembling F1 and economic inequality soaring, we can't be too surprised. Wealthy enthusiasts will command attention from product managers and some of those luxuries may eventually reach us. 
• Another price point issue—innovation at basic price points is extremely hard. In cycling, with 150yrs of intense development, it requires raw genius. We aren't going to see that very often so, in the meantime, we can tolerate the $300 jockey wheels!
• Do you think unidirectional carbon fiber spokes will find longterm buy-in? They seem affordable in view of carbon rim prices. Are their aero, weight, and visual benefits worth it?  Wheels are far more expendable than other components—so the gamble is different. I would have called tubeless a fad ten years ago—oops!
• "Aerodynamics is everything" seems paused. Are we out of solutions or exhausted? Where will the innovation spotlight next land?
• Economical designs (steel frames, aluminum rims, mechanical shifting, etc) may look dull, especially to media. But they enable beginners, bike packers, householders, and many others to afford their fun. 2026 will likely see more belt tightening.

The job market
If industry experts are correct, smaller shops are the future. This doesn't mean large shops necessarily shrink, but new ones are planning around smaller formats—giving them lower rent, less inventory cost, and more flexibility. 

If a twenty person shop needs one builder (a reasonable guess?) then does a ten person shop need 1/2? Probably one of the 10 will build. Expect more builders per employee count as shop size decreases.

More independent builders are offering additional services and products. These quasi-shops will leverage the trust and expertise that wheel building affords them.

As larger wheel brands resort to exotic materials and design to compete against each other, prices elevate. As their offerings trend up in price, independent builders see opportunity. 

Likewise, as bicycle sales remain weak, attention shifts to upgrades. And none is as likely to transform a ride as a cleverly matched and well built wheelset. It's still difficult to make a living building wheels but overall conditions seem to be improving.

Lean into the resilience of cycling.
In times that can be bleak, when authorities wage war on cycling, take heart in the resilience of the bicyce. It's an unstoppable force that can survive any darkness.

The bicycle has so much to offer in times of scarcity and it never sleeps! Makers may shutter, access may shrink, but the bicycle evolves—even in troubled times. 

Disasters of the past 150yrs show the bicycle not only survives and contributes but bounces forward when conditions improve. You have chosen your hobby well!

Goals for 2026

• The wheel tells us to be patient, to trust in fundamentals.
• Expand your global network. Find counterparts around the world and arrange meaningful exchange. Progress is not limited to Colorado or Vicenza. Today, it's in less predictable places—-Montreal, Poland, Spain, etc. Broaden your network! 

Here's to a 2026 with faith in the bicycle and its veritable wings—the wheels we're fanatical about!

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