Ebike Futures

July 07, 2024 2 Comments

Ebikes are much in the press, in our repair stands, and under our butts. Such growth is surprising even optimists. In geology, it's called a volcano and often brings panic and uncertainty. The bike industry is always chasing trends—but this is another level. Combined with global market instability, we've got quite a chaotic scene! So, where will ebike evolution go? Motorcycle history holds some lessons. There’s been a “Moore’s Law” for engines—a rapid rate of advancement that hugely affects that industry. Unlike bicycles with fixed capacity engines (us), motorcycles surf a long wave of seemingly unlimited power increase—which heavily affects marketing and sales.

The latest motorcycles are sleek, fast, and can practically drive themselves. To me, however, too many look like swollen motors on wheels. Back some years, I chose between the motorcycle and bicycle industries and considered their likely futures.

Glad I chose cycling, I was expecting so much more from the likes of Honda, Yamaha, BMW, etc. than has happened. Relentless increases in engine power curbed incentives for other improvements (frame, wheels, efficiency, repairability, versatility, etc.). Some are faster than hypercars, but offer little inspiration for cycling.

I'm glad to see cycling development (suspension, pneumatics, ergonomics, aerodynamics) is on a higher level. Just check the latest DH or Tour tech.

Back to ebikes—battery capacity, motors, and controllers are improving at an incredible rate. Will this mean future ebikes become bloated and overweight? Fast but not clever? Will the agile joy of pedal biking be preserved in the face of increasing power? How will they escape that fate?

Many gifted people are involved in ebike development so such a destiny might not be inevitable, but it’s hard to see another future given today’s conditions.

Reminds me what can happen to a happy place I once knew that experiences too much power (SF Midpeninsula)!

Thoughts?

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